I’m not going to say I told you so.
For one thing, it wouldn’t be strictly true. This is something I learned in 1992, when, after eleven years of boring my friends and family with dire warnings about When The Big Hurricane Comes, Andrew did come and slapped the northern Bahamas silly. Even though I was right (eventually) you can’t say someone predicts something if they make it a mantra for a decade or so. Even though I knew that the economics of the 1990s couldn’t last, weren’t sustainable, would eventually crash, I can’t claim prescience or anything like that.
The economy was going to crash sooner or later.
But I’m going to make a prediction now. It’s not an awfully fun one, either. The Bahamian economy is very likely to crash, and hard. And soon. Why? Well, it has occurred to me (why I was so silly I don’t know) that our extended period of prosperity has lasted pretty well as long as the Cuban Revolution has lasted — the revolution and the attendant embargo. Quite simply, because Americans couldn’t go to Cuba, they came here.
That time is conceivably going to end in the foreseeable future. If you were paying attention to Obama’s state of the union address, you might be like me, and seeing it coming sooner or later.
But more on that later.
{ 9 comments… read them below or add one }
In the Bahamas, the reality of our “borrowed prosperity” in this region will be challenged.
We have benefited from February 7th, 1962 when the US imposed its embargo against Cuba. Apart from the “Change” buzz word that is inevitable, our nations leaders initially implemented programs structured to accommodate the “Change” of that era. Unfortunately, as a nation, we have not grown because we are discussing the same problematic issues that politicians have not or try to address from 1962.
Our Agriculture industry was destroyed.
Our Immigration Department has allowed the social fabric of our nation to deteriorate, while the face of our nation has changed with a different attitude and mindset.
Our Banking Industry is under attack as we sit, wait, and watch it evaporate.
Our Tourism Industry remains afraid of the unknown because they failed to prepare.
I do believe that out of every crisis comes opportunity, but I do agree that it will get worst before it gets better.
Thanks for stopping by, Anthony. It suddenly occurred to me after I heard a news report about Obama’s plan for the opening up of Cuba that ours is a generation that has never had to compete head-to-head with any other nation in the tourism industry, and we have become very complacent in our tourism-by-default model. It seems inevitable that we will suffer as a result of our short-sightedness, I’m afraid.
Hi Nico:
What do you make of the recent changes in Cuba by Castro 2?
Rick
Not much. If Raul doesn’t recognize which way the wind is blowing he’s an idiot, which I doubt no Castro is. Cuba’s isolation in the Americas is nearing its end, and, like China, the Communists are going to have to make some accommodations for the capitalist world. I don’t see the changes as being a whole lot more than pragmatic. Cuba is far better prepared — whatever you think about its economy — to survive in a capitalist and globalized world than most of the rest of us; for people seeking a unique tropical experience, it’s got it all. Havana’s the New York of the south. We cannot forget that before Las Vegas was what it was, Havana had all the entertainment — and under the communist regime that has only grown better. When Cuba opens up, The Bahamas will belatedly recognize the economic value of the cultural sector. Unfortunately, due to lack of fundamental investment in our cultural product by businessmen and government alike, The Bahamas will be in no way able to compete; our cultural sector is poorer than Haiti’s. Cuba’s nearest competitors in the Caribbean will be (besides the other Spanish territories) Jamaica, Barbados, and Trinidad and Tobago. Expect a tourism shift towards the south. And until the US health care system changes, expect a strange new sort of tourism to develop — medical tourism, which Canada was experiencing in a strange sort of way for drugs. The private-insurance-based US health care system cannot compete globally unless the people consuming it are richer than the average uninsured American.
Boy you packed a lot into that response Nico.
I’d like to go a little further with your points about health care.
When Canada is paying 40% of total tax revenue for it’s health care system, how can it possibly be sustainable?
Ontario is at 50% if I’m not mistaken.
In my opinion the economy was indeed going to crash sooner or later, and we will soon lose our grip on tourism leadership sooner rather than later, but do not blame much of this on Cuba. The fact of the matter is, as you have all pointed out, we have disrespected our culture and have invested virtually peanuts in our cultural resources. Whether Cuba opens up or stays closed we are quickly becoming a society that is no longer recognizable as our own, and our children are becoming “aliens”.
We would never have to “compete” with our neighbours if we become the best that we can be at being ourselves. If we become “the most excellent Bahamians” we can be, we can share the renaisance of the Caribbean with countries next door. When the rest of the world turns its head this way ,if we are ready, we can only benefit from the attention.
We should not be afraid of Cuba, unless we continue trying to copy Cuba (substitute Jamaica, Haiti, L.A., Detroit etc.).
Be who you is
And not who you aint.
Cause if you aint who you is,
You is who you aint.(Anonymous)
Hi Dr. Bethel,
The Bahamian economy has even yet to truly kick off and you are predicting the end?
Let’s be a little more realistic. For one, Cuba does not speak English. Secondly, they have just as much history as us. Thirdly, we are still closer to the USA–if US kids can still flock to Cancun, they can come to Bimini (at least!)
While we would lose some market share, it’s not the end of the world when our tourism product, is already in a mediocre state and we have been doing just fine all present circumstances undertood.
Not to sound macarbe or to gloat in a time of crisis, but Dubai just ended it’s run and investors, are closing up shop! Fancy that!?!?
Besides…no one likes Cuba, the way they like the Bahamas.
Going to the Bahamas, just rolls off of the tounge!!!
LOL…
Youri
http://globalviewtoday.blogspot.com/
Thanks, everybody, for stopping by and speaking your minds!
Rick, there is no way I am getting into a discussion about health care with you. I am a person who is ineligible for affordable private health insurance. If I wish to remain covered, I must work for an institution that provides good group health coverage. If I were self-employed I would be faced with the choice of cook-outs, bankruptcy or death in the case of serious illness. It is not a comfortable place to be and I am not about to engage in an abstract ideological discussion on something that has real consequences for me and my family. Your position leads you to throw up extreme examples in the service of proving your ideological point, and I do not believe it is an either-or issue. So no discussion here. Sorry ’bout that.
There are exceptions to every rule Nico and you may be one of them, but your ideology will have more negative effects than mine.
However, I am on record that a catastrophic plan might be necessary for people like you.
However, there is no need to bankrupt the country with socialised medicine however. The facts speak for themselves about the total amount of the budgets being utilised that I mentioned. That is nothing to do with ideology.
But you would rather dismiss me as an ideologue. It’s a pity.
But I understand.